Anthropogenic
Amazon: the future?
Spatial and temporal summary
Throughout these blog posts, I have examined many human activities
that are destroying the Amazon rainforest. Due to these ever increasing
activities, it is becoming more and more important to protect this fragile
ecosystem. In this blog post, I will show that GIS simulations are an important
tool when it comes to implementing environmental protection plans.
Figure 1 shows the probable cumulative
deforestation based on GIS simulations incorporating both The
Action Plan for Prevention and Control of the Legal Amazon Deforestation (PPCDAM) and without). Without PPCDAM, the South
and East Amazon have an extremely high probability of complete deforestation
outside of any protected zone.
Figure 1. Cumulative deforestation
probability in the year 2050 (a) under the pre-PPCDAM and (b) the post-PPCDAM
scenario The Action Plan for Prevention and Control of the Legal Amazon
Deforestation)
Furthermore, it is vital to place special attention to the most
environmentally diverse areas while implementing environmental protection
plans. These environmentally diverse areas can be found through the analysis of
their above ground carbon levels. This kind of analysis has allowed us to
determine that the Peruvian Amazon contains some of the highest risk areas in
terms of future development (Fig. 2) as they have levels of carbon reaching up to 15 kg/m2
Figure 2. A map of average surface carbon
density (ACD) at a resolution of one hectare for the 128,500,000 hectare – Peru
High resolution GIS mapping of both Amazon
carbon stores and deforestation have only recently been developed as observed
in Figures 1 and 2. These figures help illustrate the sobering fact that,
without further intervention, the Amazon could lose 65% of biomass by 2060.
However, GIS is a tool for monitoring and analyzing change through time and
space, and should therefore not be considered as the sole solution.
Solutions?
The aforementioned stakeholders in previous
posts include, but are not limited to the following:
multinational companies such as logging & bioenergy developers, farmers,
cattle ranchers, governments as well as environmentalists and indigenous groups
including the Yanomamo and Kayapo.
The engagement of all stakeholders and an appreciation
of the eco-political viewpoint is vital for the Amazon’s future survival, but
how this is achieved has been a question of debate for many years. This complex problem
has six different frameworks that need to be addressed:
- Political
- Sociological
- Technological
- Engineering
- Ecological
- Agronomical
The future of the Amazon can be expressed in terms of a self-fulfilling prophecy. The theory, first conceptualized
in 1948, suggests that behavior influenced by
expectations can create the initial expectations to materialize.
For expectations to develop into a truth, legitimization
must be enforced by political and financial promises. In the case of the
Amazon, the Brazilian government must commit to policy change and financial
backing. One such policy, the Forest Code, is estimated to have reduced
deforestation by 35% between 2005 and 2009.
The second factor, directionality,
incorporates the technological Think Tanks and bodies responsible for
innovation pathways into the debate. With regards to Amazonian protection,
universities are crucial for paving the way in innovation and research which
the Brazilian government must listen to.
Think tanks and intellectual hubs that amalgamate these
perspectives and analyze intelligence are the key to answering the trillion-dollar
question: How do you balance conservation of natural resources and
cultures with development?
